November 17, 2010

Stats Don't Lie

The first three weeks of the NBA season have been, statistically speaking, awesome. Rajon Rondo notched 24 assists while posting a triple double and Kevin Love helped himself to 31/31/5. Even the 29th ranked Milwaukee Bucks offense scored 41 points in a quarter with a forward pairing of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Drew Gooden. And that's just the list of performances that have come against the Knicks! (Note: How do you know you’re a hardcore NBA fan? When you can spell Luc Richard Mbah a Moute without a Google search. Also…Szczerbiak.) History will undoubtedly be made again this week, as I anticipate the NBA will present its’ player of the week award to an athlete from the NFL for the first time since Mark Sanchez threw it down with surprising authority after a touchdown against the Raiders. Mike Vick’s dunking this past Monday was only metaphorical but his performance against the Redskins leaves David Stern no choice because, well, did you see that guy??? There is no word yet on whether he will also capture the MLS and NHL player of the week awards, mostly because no one cares if the aforementioned awards do, or do not, exist.


These performances are incredible but one might choose to view them cynically. Mike D'Antoini's teams have a certain reputation of defensive ineptitude and the Redskins are nothing if not the Knicks of the NFL. But the non-Knick-induced division of superb statistical showings includes a 54-point quarter by the Pacers on 20-21 shooting (with Mike Dunleavy scoring 24), a nine steal game by John Wall in his third professional appearance (unless you count all those games at Kentucky) and 13 points/12 rebounds from Darko Milicic against Charlotte. Seriously. That happened in a real NBA game with referees, an opposing team and at least a handful of eyewitnesses. Apparently, Kwame Brown’s sucktitude makes even Darko look productive. And that’s part of the beauty of November basketball. It’s a time when the Warriors can dream of making the playoffs and Clippers fans have three quarters of excitement before reality sets in and Baron Davis' rolls of fat crush any potential hope for the season. Small sample sizes and widely differing strengths of schedule skew the numbers dramatically. What is real and what is the square root of 9? It’s hard to tell. Keeping that in mind, here are some of the more unusual stats of the regular season to date with absolutely no predictions about whether or not these trends will continue (games through 11/16).

LeBron James has an offensive rebounding rate of 1.0. That means he grabs 1 offensive rebound for every 100 missed shots by Chris Bosh the Legion of Doom. This rates him lower than renowned offensive boarders Steve Nash, Eddie House, Beno Udrih, Steve Blake and Sebastian Telfair. But it does put him ahead of Legion backup small forward James Jones (0.5), so don’t go clamoring for a starting lineup change just yet.

Tyrus Thomas has a PER of 23.18 (which would put him in the conversation for an All-NBA spot) and ranks 14th in the league, sandwiched between LeBron James and Manu Ginboili. I have no idea what to do with this information other than ignore it and move on.

D.J. Mbenga has only played 60 minutes so far this season and leads the league (by a wide margin) with a turnover ratio of 37.2 (per 100 possessions used). This is amazing because his usage rate is only 7 and he should theoretically have CP3 presenting him with easy opportunities to score. But mostly, it is amazing because D.J. Mbenga is amazing. Tacos! I miss you D.J. Keep kicking ass.

Kevin Durant is shooting three pointers at a 31% clip. To put it another way, Durant has been half as effective a three point shooter as Gary Forbes of the Denver Nuggets. Maybe instead of focusing on winning a gold medal at the FIBA World basketball championships, Durant should have been working on his shooting in the offseason. Like Gary Forbes. Did you know that Forbes is from Panama? Perhaps he and Greivis Vasquez will have an epic rivalry as Western Conference foes from small Central/South American countries. Or perhaps not. But that would be sweet. Or as Greivis would say...Eso seria dulce.

Unfortunately for the Thunder, Durant is leading the team in 3-point percentage (for players who have taken more than one attempt) and Oklahoma City is shooting 25.3% from deep. I would make a list of players that are eclipsing that mark but it is much easier to make a list of players who qualify for the three-point percentage title and fall below 25%. Eric Gordon. Done! Poor Clippers.

According to Hoopdata, Dwight Howard is making 51.6% of his shots within 10 feet (not including at the rim). Pau Gasol is making 51.4% of his shots within 10 feet. Dwight Howard is making 42.9% of his shots between 10 and 15 feet. Pau Gasol is shooting 42.4% from the same distance. If Slim Chin has taught me anything, it’s that having a lady pyramid is, indeed, freaky. But he’s also taught me that fast don’t lie. And neither do statistics. Mostly.

“There are lies, damn lies and statistics.” Popularized by Mark Twain

                                                                               Yep.

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