February 7, 2011

Chris Paul for MVP

On Saturday night, the Los Angeles Lakers defeated the New Orleans Hornets 101-95. Pau Gasol went Black Swan all over David West and Kobe Bryant looked good enough that I'll express my disapproval with his upcoming filmmercial "The Black Mamba" at another time. Even with those superstar efforts, the Lakers could not put away a Hornets team missing two of its' four best players (Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor). How did New Orleans stay competitive with Aaron Gray and D.J. Mbenga manning (and I use that term loosely) the center position? In my opinion, that answer is threefold. First of all, Chris Paul scored 21 points on only 11 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, CP3 ran the pick-and-roll flawlessly and recorded 15 assists. Finally, 'Paul, Chris' played a season-high 44 minutes and masterfully orchestrated the Hornets offense throughout the game. As has been the case all year, Paul dragged a supporting cast of mostly mediocre NBA players to an excellent result. Tonight's effort alone should earn him some sort of award.

Wait...what? There is an award for this kind of performance? That's crazy! What's it called???

 Derrick Rose is figuratively bowling over MVP voters. Maybe Chris Paul is just too literal.

"If I were someone else, would this all just fall apart?" Matchbox Twenty in Real World

Chris Paul is the current MVP of the 2010-2011 NBA season. In a direct comparison with media favorite Derrick Rose, Paul is a superior shooter, passer, ball handler and defender (probably). They have identical rebound rates and play on teams with similar records. In fact, the Hornets mark of 32-20 may be more impressive than the Bulls 34-15 record because of the significant difference in strength of schedule (2nd hardest and 2nd easiest, respectively). Paul only suffers in his ability to create shots and has thus scored eight fewer points per game. Unfortunately, that may be too great a difference for CP3 to capture the MVP award.

The MVP is not about being the best player in the league. It's not even about having the best year during the regular season. The MVP is about excellent play and fitting the narrative written by the media. The preseason narrative made it clear that Kevin Durant was the front-runner for MVP. As the Thunder stumbled out of the gate and Durant struggled with his shot, it became apparent that a different story would be written. It turns out it was the same story just with a different protagonist. Rose immediately filled the void left by Durant as the young gold medal-winner taking his game to new heights on an improving team. His reverse lay-ups might be the most exciting play that doesn't involve Blake Griffin dunking or Joel Anthony trying to catch a no-look pass. Derrick Rose looks like an MVP as he barrels around the court as the finest physical specimen the point guard position has ever seen. I guess it is not too surprising that he is first in the weekly rankings at ESPN, NBA.com and Hoopsworld. Paul sits no higher than fifth on any list.

Chris Paul lumbers around the court with a bulky knee brace looking like a grizzled veteran (or Andrew Bynum) instead of an MVP candidate. He brings to (my) mind Matchbox Twenty songs and has recorded exactly zero dunks this season. His raw numbers are down from previous years and probably is not playing as well as during his sensational 2007-2008 season. But for those of you into advanced stats (should be all of you), Paul sits first in win shares (Rose is ninth) and second in PER (eleven spots ahead of Rose). Derrick Rose supposedly has more fourth quarter heroics but Chris Paul has led the league's most effective crunch time offense. Chris Paul is as important to his team as Dirk Nowitzki but contributes statistically like LeBron James or Dwyane Wade. So if Chris Paul is once again the best point guard in the league, how can Derrick Rose win MVP?

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