The Atlanta Hawks have a relatively young core of players and won 100 games and two playoff series over the past two years. They have improved on their win total in each of the last five regular seasons and have an emerging star who harnessed his immense talents for the first time in 2010. All of these facts make Atlanta seem like the (much-hyped) OKC Thunder of the Eastern Conference and indeed, the Hawks are similarly a single piece away from being a serious contender. Lost amidst the LeBron mania over the summer was a low-key, yet crucial, signing for Atlanta. It was a signing that brought Atlanta two-time championship experience not named Adam Morrison. To be fair, Josh Powell’s ability is more Morrisonian than Bryantesque. But his renowned locker room DJ-ing can only help team chemistry. According to John Hollinger’s latest computations, that should be good at least .17 wins this season. And all for the veteran’s minimum! So, there’s that. Oh, I almost forgot. The Hawks front office also re-signed Joe Johnson to a contract worth $119 million and destined the team to five years of 48 win seasons and early playoff exits at the hands of the Magic, Celtics, Bulls and
The Ghost of Seasons Present
The team that won 53 games last year remains intact. I mean that very literally. The top eight players from last year’s team only missed a combined 17 games to injury and all are healthy during preseason. It is a trend that greatly aided Atlanta’s efforts in 2010 and a repeat performance is unlikely at best. In other unfortunate news, Jamal Crawford’s unlikely transformation into a reasonably efficient scorer may be an outlier from his established pattern of assembling a small village every season with all the bricks he fires up from 25 feet. He is already grumbling about a potential contract extension that has no chance of being offered and that sore may fester as the season progresses. I would say that this could cast a dark, odorous cloud over the season but nothing can overpower the suffocating stench emanating from Mike Bibby’s decaying game. Bibby’s decline leaves a Chris Paul-shaped hole at the point guard position that fellow Wake Forest alum Jeff Teague is unlikely to fill. In related news, Billy Knight could have drafted Chris Paul in 2005 but instead chose UNC 6th man Marvin Williams. I take back my previous hat tip to Rick Sund’s incompetence. He still has a long way to go to reach the hallowed grounds occupied by the Knight Rider. Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Al Horford and Teague may make small improvements as they continue to mature but even these improvements will not keep the Hawks north of 50 wins assuming average (instead of impeccable) health from its’ rotation players. The only hope for continued improvement may lie with new coach Larry Drew. Ex-coach Mike Woodson employed a lot of “Iso Joe” during fourth quarters, clearing out for Johnson and letting him work. The offense frequently bogged down as more efficient weapons Smith and Horford went ignored and Johnson (or Crawford) forced up contested eighteen footers. Atlanta has a balanced team that would thrive with more ball movement and Drew has steadfastly maintained that he will feature a different approach. Still, as is my nature, I am pessimistic that Woodson’s primary assistant is going to re-invent the wheel and come up with a drastically different offense than his predecessor. The Hawks will comfortably make the playoffs but an improved Eastern Conference means a first round exit is probably awaiting them in April.
The Ghost of Seasons Yet To Come
While enormously overpaid, Joe Johnson will remain a good player for the next couple years. Al Horford is working on an extension and Marvin Williams shouldn’t be worse than the exceptionally ordinary small forward he is today. Throw in three more years of Josh Smith and the Hawks should be a playoff mainstay for the foreseeable future. Since Joe Johnson will be making $20 million by 2013, Smith is also the player most likely to be forced off the team due to salary cap considerations. I might be biased because I happen to love watching ridiculously talented, large, athletic men play basketball but Josh Smith is the best player on this team. Perhaps my vision is clouded by my bizarre love of the most common last name in America but Josh Smith has got it going on. He joins Ozzie, Adam, Agent, Jay Pharoah’s Will, Anna Nicole and Method Man (Clifford Smith) on the list of my favorite Smiths. Perhaps taking the hint from the
“For better is half a loaf than no bread.” British proverb
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