I Am Legion

Full disclosure: I wrote most of this before the Legion of Doom made a mockery of an Orlando Magic team that will probably win 60 games this year...

It would be unwise to draw any long-term conclusions from the first game of the season. But after the first two games? Bring on the predictions! The Legion of Doom struggled in an opening night loss to the Celtics, being thoroughly outplayed and seemingly lucky to be within eight at the final buzzer. They dispatched the outmatched 76ers the following night but still looked disjointed in a ten-point win. After seeing these two games, I have reached a conclusion; the Legion will win the 2010-2011 NBA championship. Easily.

Some NBA "experts" have voiced a number of concerns about the team that will become the NBA’s next dynasty. Let’s go through them individually.

Concern Number One- Defense

Throughout history, there have been plenty of NBA champions that were better on offense than defense. But since the Bad Boy Pistons implemented the Jordan Rules on their way to back-to-back championships in 1989 and 1990, the league has favored defensive-minded teams. Phil Jackson’s teams have all had remarkable offensive talent (Jordan, Pippen, Shaq, Kobe, Gasol) but these teams didn’t win championships until their defense (at least) matched the offense. His most recent Lakers teams only won after becoming an elite defensive unit (to counter Boston’s historically good 2008 defense). The Spurs won four championships by building excellent defensive squads around Tim Duncan. Detroit shocked the world in 2004 with Ben Wallace and a stingy defense. There seems to be a pattern here...

Last year, the Miami Heat won 47 games before losing to the Celtics in a first-round playoff series despite relying on Dwyane Wade to create most of the offense. How did they do it? They were second in defensive efg% and eighth in forcing turnovers (by percentage of possessions defended). They brought seven players back from that team and replaced Michael Beasley, Quentin Richardson and Jermaine O’Neal with LeBron James, Mike Miller and Chris Bosh. Miller and Bosh are longer and better rebounders than their predecessors but you can make the case that Richardson and O’Neal are better overall defenders. But Michael Beasley is not a better defender than LeBron. Michael Beasley is not a better defender than me. I’m not a fan of Caps Lock but this is a HUGE upgrade for a team that was already very good defensively.

I only drew two long term conclusions from the Legion-Celtics game. Boston’s defense will still be very good even without Tom Thibodeau (and with Shaq). And that Spoelstra is a very smart coach and realizes the key to winning a championship. He has focused on defense throughout training camp. Rajon Rondo and the size of the Boston frontcourt present as much of a matchup problem for the Legion as anyone in the league. Rondo was sensational and had 17 assists. Big Baby and Shaq were effective inside. The Legion still allowed less than 1 point per possession and held Boston to 88 points. This team is going to be great defensively, likely the best in the league. The offense will come with familiarity, the defense is already there (see holding Orlando to 70 points tonight).

Concern Number Two- Rebounding

This is ridiculous. While the Legion doesn’t have a rebounding center, they have players who are great rebounders at every other position. Miller, James, Wade, Bosh and Haslem were all in the top 14 at their positions in rebound rate last year. They grabbed a greater percent of defensive rebounds than Boston (were outrebounded overall because they missed about 437 more shots) and this will not be an issue assuming good health (Dwight Howard only had 7 boards in 29 minutes tonight).

Concern Number Three- Point Guard and Center

This is a list of starters on NBA champions in the past 10 years. Very old Derek Fisher, Francisco Elson/Fabricio Oberto, Rasho Nesterovic, Samaki Walker (half of playoffs) and very old Ron Harper. Carlos Arroyo and Joel Anthony would fit in seamlessly with this group of players. The concerns are overstated in the first place because LeBron James will be the actual point guard for this team and the other spot will be filled by a good shooter like Mike Miller, Eddie House or James Jones. The hole in the middle is slightly more concerning and makes me wonder why Pat Riley didn’t sign Erick Dampier. But Bosh will play some center and the Legion will mix and match with Anthony, Ilgauskas and Jamaal Magloire to fill the other minutes.

Concern Number Four- Depth

The Lakers are (rightly so) considered loaded with talent. They are long, skilled and experienced. But they won the 2010 championship with reliable contributions from two players. Kobe and Pau Gasol carried this team for long stretches as Andrew Bynum was a shell of his normal shelf due to injury. Ron Artest struggled for most of the playoffs. Lamar Odom had an excellent series against Phoenix and…umm…well, see for yourself. Playoff Derek Fisher was much better than Regular Season Fisher but he may have been the worst starting point guard in the conference during the season. Very quietly, the Lakers followed a similar blueprint to the Shaqobe Lakers, two dominant players and timely contributions from the role players. The NBA is a superstar league and the Legion has three very reliable star players. The effect of this will be magnified in the playoffs with reduced travel and without back-to-back games. The Big Three are all young and should be able to play 40+ minutes a game during the playoffs. 

The Legion of Doom played their absolute worst on Tuesday against the Celtics. They only had a limited offense installed and were playing in front of a raucous Boston crowd. Rajon Rondo had an excellent game and the Celtics shot well from the three point line. The Legion was within three points in the last minute. By the time the playoffs roll around they will have spent a year playing together in the same system. They should have Mike Miller back (a player that one advanced metric values nearly as much as Chris Bosh (which is wrong but thats not the point, the point is he's good)). No one in the Eastern Conference can stop them over a seven game series (especially since they will likely have home court advantage). Only the Los Angeles Lakers have a chance at defeating the Legion in the Finals and that would require the merging of the 2008 squad’s bench production, 2009’s offense, 2010’s defense and a healthy Andrew Bynum. That’s a lot to ask. In the end, the Legion of Doom is the safe pick and the most likely NBA champion. They are vulnerable to an injury but that is no different than any other team (Dwight Howard/Jameer Nelson, Kobe/Pau/Bynum, Rondo/Garnett/Pierce). They are my pick for the upcoming season and will be my pick for the next five years (they’re my new Spurs except they'll probably do better than alternating years). But what do I know? I’m the guy who picked the Orlando Magic last year. Go Lakers.

“If you ain’t running with it run from it mother fucker, alright” Lil Wayne in Right Above It